So, what’s the big deal about the number 1 seed in the National Football League playoffs?
Well, since the NFL introduced the seeding for the postseason in 1975, there have been 50 Super Bowls played, and number one seeds have won 27 of them. Fifteen times the Super Bowl has featured a pair of teams that both finished their seasons with the top seed in their conference.
Guess the number one seed is a pretty good indicator of who is going to be favored in their conference entering the postseason.
Not this year.
The favorite to win it all this season by current Super Bowl numbers are the Los Angeles Rams. They have already been eliminated from the chance of earning the top seed in the National Football Conference, that distinction will go to the winner of the game this Saturday in Santa Clara when the San Francisco 49ers host the Seattle Seahawks. In other words, the NFC West Division has, by the book numbers, the best three teams in the league. (Don’t try and sell that to the defending champs fans in Philadelphia).
If the Rams aren’t the top seed in their conference, are not going to win their division, and still are the favorite to win Super Bowl LX, how could anyone bet against them tonight when they meet an Atlanta Falcons team that was long ago eliminated from postseason consideration?
Most people can’t.
The numbers on the canvas of sports books in Nevada indicate that nearly 10 of every 11 wagers on this game are landing on the Rams giving the points. Those were the numbers when the Rams were nine point favorites, and since then the line has been sliced two points. Los Angeles is currently favored by seven points.
Why?
Two reasons. First the wise guy action is all over the Falcons plus the points. And second, they are taking into consideration what the Rams have to play for tonight. Only the possible difference between a fifth or sixth seed, and even with a loss they don’t necessarily get dropped to the sixth seed.
With a playoff date next month confirmed, and a quarterback of advanced years who started the season with injuries and has recovered nicely as the season went on, do you think that perhaps head coach Sean McVay may be more interested in protecting his roster from injury than winning this game?
When they open the playoffs, the game will matter to the Rams, and the books are banking on them having the best choice at winning it all.
In this game, the books are betting that the Rams are not the right side. This is evidenced by them moving the line down even while bettors betting on the Rams are flocking to the window like teenagers rushing a rock star’s bus.
I am not a fan of Falcons Quarterback Kirk Cousins. I have seen Atlanta Head Coach Raheem Morris provide ample evidence that he shouldn't answer his phone on the NFL black Monday, the day most coaches are fired. But side me with the wise guys and books tonight while the bettors back a team that has bigger fish to fry in two weeks.
Qoxhi Picks: Atlanta Falcons (+7) over Los Angeles Rams