When the American Football League and National Football League merged in 1970 the 26 teams played a six game preseason schedule. In those days, the summer games were referred to as “exhibition” games.

I was in the NFL public relations meetings where it was ordered that we stop referring to these games as “exhibition” and instead title them “preseason” games. The reason was because in those days, as is still true today, ticket holders are charged full price for these scrimmages and the sting of that for a fan would be reduced if they were going to a game before the regular season instead of an exhibition.

It took years for the league to erase exhibition from common football language. Requests from the team public relations departments to call them preseason games instead of exhibition games was first met with laughter from the press. They knew that the summer games were little more than practices against an opponent that the fans were paying as much to see live as a December game with the division race up for grabs.

So, what really are these games which in recent years have been reduced to three?

Do they mean anything?

Do they offer any real insight into which teams are going to advance to the playoffs and those that will end their season referring to the year as a rebuilding period?

Now, we know that teams that are successful are handicapped on the point spread. The best teams have to give the most points with the books looking to collect on bad teams with the benefit of generous point spreads. This starts in the preseason.

Consider this, defending Super Bowl champions have a losing record straight-up and a worse record against the point spread over the past ten seasons. Since 2016, defending champs, that would be the Philadelphia Eagles this year, are 11-17 straight-up and 10-18 against the point spread … figures that include a win in both categories last week by the Eagles.

Okay, nothing new, the books pull the rug out from under the public’s favorite plays, and Super Bowl winners are certainly at the top of public opinion.

While only two defending champs from the past ten seasons had winning straight-up marks in the preseason, that would be the New England Patriots in 2019 and Kansas City Chiefs in 2023, only two teams had losing preseason records in the year they won it all. For the record, that would be the Chiefs in 2019 and the Rams in 2021.

Combined, in the season they captured the Vince Lombardi Trophy teams earned a 19-14 straight-up mark in the summer and improved on that with a 20-13 record against the point spread.

What can we deduce from these numbers?

The preseason does mean something.

Teams that are on their way to a Super Bowl title start well and are not hurt by the point spread.

If I were to utilize this information in early results this season to find a team that appears to have all the ingredients in place to win it all, the first squad that comes into focus is the team Jim Harbaugh is coaching in Los Angeles.

The Chargers played in this year’s Hall of Fame Game, so we have had two opportunities to see them in action. They look very good, beating the Detroit Lions and New Orleans Saints by lopsided scores of 34-7 and 37-13 respectively.

This success is still in advance of them putting their prize quarterback, Justin Herbert, into the competition.

Yes, it is only the preseason, and the Chargers lost a key cog off their offensive line when left tackle Rashawn Slater was sidelined with a season ending injury.

But, with odds for a Super Bowl win pegged at 28 to 1 the Chargers are a viable long term proposition. After all, this is a team that made the playoffs last year but lost their opening postseason game, which offers motivation for this season.

They are also playing out of a division that includes the Kansas City Chiefs, a team that beat them twice last year and earned the best record in the American Football Conference. Anyone paying attention knows the Chiefs 2024 regular season record of 15-2 was a bit of an illusion given how many games they won in close and in some cases, lucky fashion. Consider this, the Eagles outscored their opponents by 160 points last season, the Buffalo Bills 157, and the Detroit Lions a league best 222 points.

The Chiefs outscored their regular season opponents by 59 points.

It wasn’t until Kansas City got whooped in the Super Bowl did their season level off to their actual talent, which means this does not promise to be a big year for Patrick Mahomes and company. If Kansas City is off a notch, and the Denver Broncos follow-up their breakout campaign last year with a predictable off season, and the Las Vegas Raiders are not yet ready to compete with the best in Pete Carroll’s first year in Sin City, then the Chargers could be considered the favorite to win the AFC West.

I know that there are a lot of circumstances that have to come together, and we are still looking for Herbert to win his first postseason game as an NFL quarterback. But the Chargers are in a sweet spot … and the preseason is confirming that.