I suspect when I say “Over/Under” in regards to the National Football League you would think I was referring to the total on the game.
There is another kind of over/under I follow in the NFL, and that is teams that have won over or under in their win total in relation to their actual talent. Now, understand that wins and losses are absolute. Fans can argue their teams are better than their records, but wins and losses are like cancer, they can’t be talked away.
Talent in the NFL is subjective. A healthy argument can be made that a team is better or worse than their actual record … and this debate can get dicey. Beware of those claiming talent is in stark contrast to actual records.
By that standard, beware of me this week because I have a team that I think has a record that is not a reflection of their real team strength. Combine that with a game this week in which, by my calculations, they are playing a team that has more wins than their talent warrants.
When this occurs, and note this requires handicapping to fly in the face of absolute won/loss records, I get excited. I think I have an investment worth putting money behind. I pause just long enough to recheck my numbers and make sure I want to challenge an absolute.
Done that.
I do.
The Carolina Panthers did not have the worst record in the NFL in 2022, but they wanted the first pick in the draft so they could grab who they viewed as a top franchise quarterback. In order to get the first pick in the draft, which was owned by the Chicago Bears that season based on a three-win season, the Panthers traded D.J. Moore and a bevy of high future draft choices to move up into the top slot in the draft.
How’d that work out?
Ever drill holes in the bottom of a canoe while 100 feet offshore?
Doesn't work out so well.
That is how the trade to move up in the 2023 NFL draft worked out for Carolina. They went from a team that won seven games in 2022 to only two games with rookie quarterback Bryce Young behind center. In his second season, Young didn’t fare much better, but in the final month of the season he seemed to hit a stride, and the Panthers won two of their final three 2024 regular season games.
By recent Carolina standards, a five-win season was reason to celebrate and enter the 2025 season with renewed enthusiasm. Had their gamble on Young begun to trend towards paying off? The trade with the Bears has certainly worked out well for Chicago. With the additional high selections in the draft, enhanced because of the Panthers poor record the past two seasons, Chicago was able to stockpile talent that now has them sitting atop their division race that includes teams as talented as the Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings.
After winning a couple late season games and five overall, hopes were high for the Panthers entering this season. Was Young about to emerge as the quarterback they bargained for when they made the trade with Chicago? Was Head Coach Dave Canales the answer to lead this team back to the top of the standings as he began his second year at the helm?
Well, the Panthers first foray into the 2025 season began with a thud, a road loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, 26-10. In second week action, the score was closer, but a second straight defeat for Canales and his men, 27-22, to the Cardinals in Arizona.
When the Panthers opened their home schedule against the Atlanta Falcons, they were underdogs to their NFC South Division rivals. And boom! Dreams come true. The Panthers treated their home fans to a rousing triumph over the Falcons, 30-0. After a Week Four setback to the New England Patriots, the Panthers won four of their next five games and enthusiasm was high following a road win over the highly regarded Green Bay Packers.
You might say, as I do, that the Panthers had reached an apex in their season with that win over Green Bay and what is to come will be more representative of their actual talent level. It began last week when they lost by 10 points on their home field to a New Orleans Saints team that visited Carolina with only one previous win this season.
Now, the Panthers head to Atlanta to meet the team that they tagged with a 30-0 loss at Bank of America Stadium for their first win of the year. And the Falcons, well they come into this contest mired in a four-game losing streak following a win for them on par with the triumph the Panthers enjoyed against the Packers, a mid-October victory over the talented Buffalo Bills.
The Falcons have lost four in a row since beating the Bills, and the Panthers have lost their first game since downing the Packers. Oh man, do I love this setup.
Of course, I have to consider that the team favored in Atlanta this week when the Panthers come calling has a worse won/loss record, they trail Carolina by two games in the NFC South Division that is currently led by Baker Mayfield and his Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Panthers may be two wins ahead of the Falcons coming into this game, but the chances of them moving three games ahead on the road against a team they already beat 30-0 in September is, dare I say it, zero.
The Panthers are “over” their win total this year, the Falcons “under” theirs. Take the under in this one, which is not the total but the team.
Qoxhi Picks: Atlanta Falcons (-3½) over Carolina Panthers