The Washington Commanders were the talk of the football world last season. First-year head coach Dan Quinn and his amazing rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels, rose from the cellar in the NFC East to the playoffs and gathered two postseason wins.
The crescendo of the Commanders campaign hit an apex when they eliminated the team with the best record in the National Football League, the Detroit Lions, on the loser's home field, 45-31. Their success had the majority of the bettors, more than 65%, leaping at the seemingly generous point spread in the NFC Championship Game. The books, meanwhile, moved the opening line up from the homesteading Philadelphia Eagles favored by 4½ points to 6.
The books, and no doubt wise guy money, knew what they were doing. While the public spent the early part of the NFC Champion Game celebrating a long Commanders drive that resulted in a field goal, the eventual Super Bowl winning Eagles opened their offensive explosion with running back Saquon Barkley breaking loose and taking it to the house for an opening play touchdown run.
The Eagles were never challenged after that. The Commander fans watched their miracle season burn in hell. The Eagles won the game, 55-23, and the Commanders began preparation for Daniels to continue his mastery over NFL defenses in his second pro season.
As brilliant as Daniels was last season, and as bright of a kid the Washington quarterback is, backing up a rookie season like he enjoyed in 2024 with equal success is not likely. History shows that teams that rise from the depths of their division race, like the Commanders did last season, have problems in the following season’s sequel.
The reasons are both physical and mental.
The success Washington enjoyed last season caught the league by surprise. The team had losing years to push off from a motivational perspective and caught fire. In 2025, NFL defensive brain trusts have had an offseason to review how the Commanders got it done and how to best defend against their brilliant QB.
This year, the Commanders are not looking to improve off a bad season but taking on the tougher challenge of building on success. Al Davis was known to preach that reaching greatness was easier than maintaining it. It is common in the NFL to see teams developing into championship caliber to fall back after their initial success until their talent and expectations are more in alignment. Following last year’s triumphant campaign, the Commanders expectations are way ahead of their actual talent.
So, how has Dan Quinn’s team done since their big win over the Lions last January?
They lost to the Eagles, 55-23, and dropped their three preseason games this year by scores of 48-18, 31-17 and 30-3. I know what you are thinking, that this was just preseason and when Daniels is on the field for the whole game the Commanders are unstoppable.
Did you notice that they have allowed 164 points in their last four games?
I know, it is mostly just preseason stuff. But it is football, and if the Commanders think they have reached a level where they can just flick the switch off a losing preseason when the regular campaign begins, like the Indianapolis Colts with Peyton Manning and other established winners were able to do, they are simply ahead of themselves.
Next week, when they open their regular campaign, the Commanders host the New York Giants. The Giants are a team that has had more trouble than a naked beekeeper in recent years and are now looking to find success with quarterback Russell Wilson, whose best days are most likely behind him.
The Giants also swept their three preseason games, which is not a positive for a bad team preparing to open their regular campaign. It is worth noting that only two teams in NFL history suffered through 16 regular season losses without a win; the 2008 Detroit Lions and 2017 Cleveland Browns. Know what those two teams had in common? They both swept their preseason slate.
Last Saturday, when the Browns were hosting the Los Angeles Rams, they got a late field goal that elevated them to a third straight preseason victory. Their announcer celebrated it like Cleveland sweeping the preseason is a sign of how good they are. No it’s not, it is the kiss of death for a bad team that gets satisfaction winning in August while their opponents are more focused on preparing for games that count.
So, we’ve got the Commanders coming off a great season and the Giants in another one of their seemingly never-ending building years.
This one looks easy to the bettors, more than 60% of the wagers on this game are taking the Commanders to both beat the Giants and the point spread. So, what is the point spread doing?
Well, it opened with the Commanders favored by 7½ points and while the public is betting on the chalk, the books have shaved the line to the Giants only getting 6 points on the spread.
Why?
Do you think the wise guys and public are on the opposite side of this game and the books are responding to the smart money?
Me too.
Qoxhi Picks: New York Giants (+6) over Washington Commanders