Next week the Kansas City Chiefs play the Buffalo Bills.
Might tonight, when they host the Washington Commanders, be a game that could catch them looking ahead and get surprised on their home field?
While that could be a reason to take the bloated double-digit line tonight with the Marcus Mariota led visitors, I believe it is faulty thinking. I don’t think this Kansas City squad has an opportunity to look ahead. No, they have to deal with what is right in front of them based on two primary factors: they lost three of their first five games and the two teams they are chasing in the AFC West, the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers, both won yesterday.
Nope, the Chiefs are playing them one at a time now, and after that rocky first month they have won their two most recent games in convincing fashion, 30-17 over the Detroit Lions and 31-0 over the Las Vegas Raiders. Both those Patrick Mahomes led victories were played on their home field, as is tonight’s battle against the Jayden Daniels-less Commanders.
I did not have the Commanders rated as high coming into this season as most football experts did. Daniels had a great rookie season, even a notch above the fabulous rookie quarterback campaign registered a year earlier by C.J. Stroud. But great rookie campaigns are often followed by second-year struggles.
The reasons second-year quarterbacks who excelled in their first professional campaign can have second-season problems are twofold. First, expectations are so high that they level the actual play and second, defensive coordinators have had time to study what made that rookie excel and design defenses to blunt that success.
Washington comes into action tonight having lost more games than they’ve won, three wins against four losses. They are without their prize quarterback; Daniels is missing his third game this season and only won two of his five starts. Mariota is making his third start while Daniels has been sidelined with injuries. He won his first, 41-24 over the Las Vegas Raiders, and got beat the following week in Atlanta, 34-27.
In other words, the Commanders don’t get the normal boost to compensate for the loss of a starting quarterback while Mariota has proven he can both win and lose while directing the team. After Daniels was injured last week in Dallas, Mariota completed the game the Commanders lost on the road, 44-22.
Washington’s defense is suspect, their starting quarterback is out, and the Chiefs are in need of a win to keep pace with the two teams ahead of them in their division.
If this was the Commanders year, they could keep this one close.
But this is not the year Dan Quinn backs up his trip to the NFC Championship Game with a rookie quarterback leading the way. This is the year the Commanders pay for expectations that exceed actual talent levels and tonight Washington is missing the primary factor that led them to crash the playoff party last year.
Both teams need this game, trailing in their divisions, but one team is in a lot better position to get it.
Qoxhi Picks: Kansas City Chiefs (-10½) over Washington Commanders