The Dallas Cowboys host the Arizona Cardinals tonight in a game that used to be a division rivalry … that was prior to division realignment in 2002 when both the Cardinals and Cowboys played out of the NFC Eastern Division.
The rivalry then is a lot like one might think the contests are now … the Cowboys dominate.
It’s not Tom Landry or Jimmy Johnson running up the score on a variety of coaches that manned the sidelines on the Cardinals side, but isn’t it still the same result? Dallas dominating the overmatched Cardinals?
Well, history doesn’t support that supposition.
It is true that while these two teams played out of the same division between 1970 and 2001, the Cowboys were consistent winners. At least straight-up. Dallas triumphed in 49 of 64 games, but in those same games, the Cardinals had a slight edge against the point spread, 32-31-1.
Since they both headed to new divisions in 2002, the Cardinals have an edge over Dallas in straight-up results, eight wins in a dozen games. The Cardinals also have the advantage in point spread decisions in those 12 games, 7 to 5. For you math wizards, you will note that since 1970 the Cowboys and Cardinals have met 76 times with Dallas winning 49 of those games straight-up and the Cardinals holding a narrow point spread edge of 39-36-1.
I tell you all that so you don’t think a wager on the Cardinals tonight is pure folly.
I know there is a long line at the sports books for bettors getting down on Dallas in this one and expecting to high-five friends at the bar all evening.
They may be at the bar all evening, but I don’t think they will have a date at the payout window when this one is over.
No team has been in more close games without positive results this season than the Cardinals. They were edged by one point at San Francisco in a third week loss to the 49ers, 16-15. The following Sunday, against a Seattle Seahawks team that looked like world-beaters last night, they got clipped by a field goal, 23-20. In fifth week action, they fumbled away a near certain win to become the only victim of the Tennessee Titans this year, 22-21.
Last week, they had their bye, while the two prior Sundays they got edged by the Indianapolis Colts and Green Bay Packers by scores of 31-27 and 27-23 respectively. This is a team that only once this year has allowed as many as 30 points, and that was against the highest scoring team in the league, the Colts.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys are looking to bounce back after allowing the Denver Broncos their highest point total of the season, 44, in a 20-point loss. The prior Sunday, the Cowboys scored 44 points in whipping the Washington Commanders in Dallas.
In 2018, the Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs played a primetime game that got everyone' s attention. The two squads put on an offensive battle for the ages with the Rams emerging from the air-war with a 54-51 win. That week, one of my favorite people in the world, Hall of Fame member Steve Young, said, “Teams should just focus on offense. No defense can keep up, just get the highest scoring team in this league.”
I laughed at the statement.
Defense is still going to matter, and two teams scoring 50 points in a game is still going to be a rare, rare event.
Defense still does matter, and last year it was the Philadelphia Eagles defense that keyed their Super Bowl victory, as it has always been for Super Bowl winners.
So, if defense matters, perhaps the wrong team is favored in Dallas tonight. While the Cardinals have only allowed 30 points once this season, the Cowboys have given up more than 30 in five of their eight games and twice 40 or more.
When a team has a swinging gate defense no lead is safe and add to that a point spread of a field goal or more, well you get the point.
Qoxhi Picks: Arizona Cardinals (+3) over Dallas Cowboys