Here is something we haven’t seen in a decade … the Kansas City Chiefs are playing the Denver Broncos and it is Andy Reid’s team that needs a win to stay in the race.
We are so used to Patrick Mahomes and company leading the pack that games this late in a season almost always have a Kansas City opponent needing a win while the Chiefs are looking for victories to lock up home field advantage for the playoffs. Not this time. Not this afternoon when the Chiefs square off against their AFC West Division rivals in the Mile High City.
The Denver Broncos are riding the top spot in their division ahead of the second place Los Angeles Chargers by a game and 2½ games up on the third place Chiefs. In other words, a win today by the Broncos would not only keep them alone atop the division but would put the Chiefs postseason prospects on life support.
If the Chiefs were to fall four back in the win column to the Broncos entering Week 12 one might think that the Kansas City years of dominance actually ended last February when they were blown away by the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LIV. After all, last season the Chiefs won the home field advantage in the playoffs by virtue of a number of nail-biting wins. Consider this, in 2024, the Detroit Lions earned the top seed in the NFC while outscoring their opponents on the season by 222 points. The Chiefs, while winning the top seed in the AFC, outscored their opponents on the year by a mere 59 points.
This season, the Indianapolis Colts have the best point differential with a plus 115 after only ten games. The Chiefs in 2025, while compiling a 5 and 4 won/loss record, have outscored their opponents by 76 points.
Wait. Do you see that?
Through half this season they have outscored their opponents by more points than they did all of last year, and yet they are just one game over .500. Last season they were 15-2, and that included a final day of the regular season meaningless game that they allowed the Denver Broncos to win while the home team earned a playoff spot with the victory.
That’s right, last January the Chiefs took half their season losses in a final game of the regular season that was won by the Broncos in Denver, 38-0. Now, if someone is looking at that result as a game the Broncos won decisively on their home field, and add that into the equation of why the Broncos are going to win today in Denver, they would be guilty of comparing apples and oranges.
Couldn’t be more different.
A year ago, the Chiefs rested their starters for the playoffs, and the Broncos got the win they needed. Today, it is the Chiefs that need it, and the Broncos are but roadkill standing in the way of a champion on a mission, or as the Blues Brothers would say, “A mission from God.”
Why else would the team with the worse record be favored on the road against the team with the best record in the AFC unless, of course, unless they were going to win.
Qoxhi Picks: Kansas City Chiefs (-4) over Denver Broncos