The National Football League is hosting another Monday Night Football doubleheader tonight with the action starting at 4:15 p.m. Pacific Time with the Atlanta Falcons hosting the Buffalo Bills. An hour later, the Chicago Bears will kick off their game against the Washington Commanders at Northwest Stadium.
The last time the Bears and Commanders met was an historic contest that ended with Jayden Daniels connecting on a Hail Mary pass to win the game … a contest that was key to the Commanders moving into the NFC Playoff field by season end. The game also was the beginning of the end for the Bears in so many ways.
Behind rookie first overall draft pick Caleb Williams, Chicago had won four of their first six games and were on the verge of winning their fifth against the Commanders in Washington. But the Bears players celebrated a little too early, and Daniels' miracle last-second toss stole the win and that started a ten game losing streak and a coaching change in Chicago.
Now, with new head coach Ben Johnson in command, the Bears return to the site of the beginning of their 2024 collapse for revenge against a Washington team that has a chance to catch the Philadelphia Eagles in the competitive NFC East Division race. The Eagles were upset by the New York Giants on Thursday night, leaving the door open for Dan Quinn’s team to catch them with a victory.
The Bears also have a chance to close in on the NFC North Division leading Detroit Lions, who lost last night to the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bears have split their first four games and have had two weeks to prepare for this game after having a bye last week following their comeback road win over the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Commanders opened the week favored by 4½ points and that line has swelled to 5½. Too many points to give in what should be a highly competitive game.
The earlier contest tonight has both the public and wise guys loving the underdog home team. The Atlanta Falcons beat the Commanders two weeks ago, and then, like Chicago, had their open date last week. Two weeks to prepare and meeting a Buffalo team that has not covered a point spread since a second week win over the New York Jets.
Three weeks ago, the Falcons were whitewashed by the Carolina Panthers, 30-0. That set them up for a big effort at home against the Commanders who were coming off a lopsided victory over the Raiders, 41-24. The Falcons bounced off their shutout road loss in Carolina with a huge effort and home win over Washington.
Now, they are underdogs at home against a Buffalo Bills team who has lost against the spread three straight weeks but only suffered their first straight-up setback last week in an upset home defeat to the New England Patriots.
Had Buffalo won last week, beat the Patriots handily, they would be arriving in Atlanta ripe for an upset loss. But, off a defeat, do you really want to bet against Josh Allen? It just seems like Allen would be extraordinarily good after a loss.
In fact, following the 26 losses he has suffered after a win in the regular season as the Bills starting quarterback since 2018, his record is 17-9 straight-up with a point spread mark of 14-11-1. Not as dramatic as I might have thought.
But, one little caveat, when he is favored on the road following a one-game losing streak he is 4-0 against the point spread.
The Falcons won two weeks ago in a perfect spot against the Commanders; tonight’s game is not as perfect. I’m not ready to leap off the cliff by myself and take the road team tonight, but I’m also avoiding the crowd that is lining up with the Falcons.
Two games tonight, but no point spread plays.