Do you have a friend that you share the same blind spot with?
For the last 20 years, I have been working with someone I also consider a friend, Tom Tolbert. We discuss football every week, first on his show aired on KNBR Radio that he hosted for this entire century plus a few years, and this season, after he completed his time with the San Francisco radio station on his podcast, “The Tom Tolbert Show.”
Tom is as popular in Bay Area sports as Mickey Mouse is in Disneyland. His humor and bright banter is anchored by an appreciation for both his guests and sports in general and a knowledge gained from both as a player and from the sidelines. He was a member of the Arizona Wildcats Final Four team in 1988, where he played with his longtime friend and current head coach of the Golden State Warriors, Steve Kerr.
Next week, on Thursday, November 13, Tom is supporting me by attending the Sweet Thursday author series at the Lafayette Library. I have been invited to discuss my recently published book on my time with Al Davis and the Oakland Raiders. Everyone is invited, and I will offer a free copy of “Al Davis to Win” to the person in attendance who traveled the longest distance.
But back to our shared blind spot. The advantage of working on air with Tolbert is he is very knowledgeable and we have fun. Having worked in professional football for more than 50 years I have clocked a lot of radio time with hosts not nearly as informed or entertaining as Tolbert. In many ways, we think alike about handicapping football. His experience as an athlete, after college he played eight seasons in the NBA, gives him firsthand knowledge of the rigors of playing sports and how athletes and teams can be up or down given the circumstances entering a contest.
His knowledge blends well with my studies on what drives teams to play above or below their perceived talent level on a given day. Which brings us to the New England Patriots.
“I get caught trying to beat a team that keeps beating me,” Tolbert said recently. With Mike Vrabel’s Patriots this season I find myself in the same place. This is a team that performed at the highest level in the two decades Tom Brady and Bill Belichick combined efforts. Brady left for Tampa Bay in 2020 after 20 seasons in New England and promptly led the Buccaneers to a Super Bowl title.
Brady has more Super Bowl wins than any NFL franchise. He won six in New England and added a seventh with the Buccaneers. The franchises with the most Super Bowl victories are the Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers, six each, followed by the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys, five.
Once Brady was out of New England, the Patriots success waned, and after Belichick retired two years ago New England’s victories dried up like a flower in the sun without water. My studies show that when a team maintains excellence for a prolonged period the drop-off after success can be severe. I have seen this in my time beginning with the Vince Lombardi Green Bay Packers teams that dominated the NFL in the 1960’s and were also-rans throughout the 70’s. Following their years of brilliance during the 1970’s, the Steelers hit hard times in the 80’s. The San Francisco 49ers rose to the top of the mountain for the 1980’s, but went through lean years after their run of success ran out in the mid 1990’s. Same with the Dallas Cowboys after winning three Super Bowls in a four-year period that began in 1992.
With that as a history lesson, after the Patriots dominated football for two decades you can understand why I figured New England would be in a long dark period in the post Brady/Belichick years.
One season down, and now back up?
This doesn’t make sense to Tom or me. And our shared “blind spot” on New England this season has us consistently picking against a team that stretched its winning streak to six games last Sunday.
Okay, that sixth straight win wasn’t all bad. While Tom and I agreed that the Atlanta Falcons was the choice over the Patriots in Foxboro last Sunday, even though Vrabel led his men to a victory, we got the money while New England won by one point, 24-23, while giving five on the point spread.
Time to celebrate a win over the Patriots … or time to reevaluate New England upward and stop allowing quarterback Drake Maye to pick our pockets in most weeks?
I’ll find out from Tom on today’s podcast which airs at 1:00 p.m. whether he agrees with me, but I’m still looking to buck the Patriots and hope the blind man can find an acorn in the snow.
Qoxhi Picks: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2½) over New England Patriots