I am drawn to underdogs in the National Football League like a moth is to a lightbulb in the night. This attraction to taking points on the point spread is not always beneficial. Last week, for instance, I loved the Los Angeles Rams to even their season series against the San Francisco 49ers but backed off making it a rated play because the line had swelled to six points.
Didn’t matter, should have been comfortable with giving the bloated line, and cashed at the payout window after Matthew Stafford and company rolled to an easy road win, 42-26.
Still, give me enough time to go over a game and I invariably will find reasons why even an overmatched underdog has a chance, at least against a bloated point spread. I find that tendency is in full-fledged flight today as I examine tonight’s game between the New England Patriots and New York Jets.
No team has been more responsible for pickpocketing profits for me and my clients this year than the Patriots. I am always in search of a team driven by recent failures to succeed, and conversely teams that have enjoyed more success than their talent seems to warrant to fail. The Patriots have enjoyed more success this year than any team in the league … and they didn’t come into this season expecting anything special given they were coming off a last place four-win season in 2024 and had a new head coach.
That new head coach, Mike Vrabel, has guided the Patriots to the top of the standings over a much higher ranked Buffalo Bills team coming into this campaign. The Patriots not only beat the Bills in their first of two head-to-head meetings this season, but now after winning seven straight games, including six of those contests against the point spread, New England has a 1½ game lead over the Bills in the AFC East Division.
How good is New England?
Consider this little stat. Since the inception of the NFL six teams have played at least seven consecutive games while scoring a minimum of 23 points and allowing 23 or less. The first team to do that was the 1949 Philadelphia Eagles, who went on to win the NFL Championship. In 1961, the Houston Oilers accomplished that feat for nine consecutive weeks and went on to win the American Football League Championship.
The 1984 San Francisco 49ers did it eight weeks in a row and went on to win Super Bowl XIX by 22 points over the Miami Dolphins. Two other teams met the 23/23 criteria seven times, the 1999 St. Louis Rams and 2024 Philadelphia Eagles, and both those teams went on to win the Super Bowl.
That is five of the teams to accomplish this lofty stat, and they all won championships. And now, for only the sixth time in professional football history, another team has scored 23 or more and given up 23 or less points at least seven consecutive times … and they could move to an eighth straight time tonight if the Patriots take down the New York Jets.
Reason to take the Patriots tonight?
Uh oh, I’m feeling the inclination that all those positive stats for the Patriots is reason to take, wait for it, the Jets tonight.
What?!
Don’t you see it? The Jets come in on a two-game winning streak and getting a bloated line against a Patriots team that has to believe they only need to toss their helmets on the field and walk away with a lopsided win. This is the kind of situation that draws me to the apparently overmatched underdog.
After all, these are professionals playing football. Any team can win on any given day. Or in this case, night.
The line is way too high, before the season started it was set at the Patriots by 5½ points. When the spread was posted after last Sunday’s action, the spread was released with New England favored by 11½ points. Once the public jumped in with the Patriots in huge numbers the books moved the line in one fell swoop a point-and-one-half to the Jets now getting 13 points on the line.
How can we not take the bloated number and expect the game to be closer than most think.
Wait a minute, the handicapping police just arrived. They are warning me not to finish this story, “Back away from the keyboard,” I’m told by a guy a lot bigger than me. I beg to be allowed to finish this story but