It was a yearly exercise in the handicapping and broadcast field of predictions that “this” was the year Tom Brady and his New England Patriots would stumble. That their run of supremacy in the AFC East was doomed because ….
Never happened.
Beginning in 2003, the New England Patriots won the AFC East Division 15 of 16 seasons, the only year they failed to win their division was when Brady was injured on opening day and missed the 2008 season. Even that year, the Patriots won 11 games and just missed another title, finishing second to the Miami Dolphins in a tiebreaker determination while both teams had the same won/loss record.
In most of those seasons, the Patriots also eclipsed their preseason win/total projections which consistently hovered around 11 or 12. In recent seasons, we are having the same situation arise from another AFC team with a future Hall of Fame first ballot enshrinee running their offense; Patrick Mahomes and his Kansas City Chiefs.
Since he took over as the starter in 2018, the Kansas City Chiefs have won the AFC West every year, appeared in seven AFC Championship Games, and advanced to five Super Bowls while winning the Vince Lombardi Trophy three times.
Is this the year the Chiefs drop from their perch atop the AFC West standings?
Even though Kansas City advanced to their fifth Super Bowl in the past six seasons last January and compiled the best record in the league, there are some cracks developing for Andy Reid’s team. Their offensive line is not a strength, they no longer have a stable of game-breaking receivers and last year’s march through the regular season would have to be attributed to many fortuitous outcomes as opposed to pure domination.
Missed field goals, critical official calls, made field goals and tip passes all seemed to bend in the Chiefs favor last season. What happens in the year following so many breaks, history shows they even out and the fortunate turn into the misfortunate.
Will this be the year Mahomes and company drop from the top spot in their AFC East Division race? We will know more after their opening Sunday contest in Los Angeles against the Chargers. If the Chiefs are to struggle, it would have to start with an opening loss to one of their primary rivals in the AFC West, Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers.
I think the home team does win that game, and whether it leads to more bad results for the Chiefs will unfold over the succeeding four months. But, for a season win total, while respecting their recent campaigns, I think this is the season the Chiefs finish with less than 11½ wins.
To pick win totals we begin with some assumptions. This year, among our givens is that the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills are the best two teams in the AFC, maybe the entire league. We look for them, still in pursuit for that elusive Super Bowl victory, to both have big years and go over their win total which, like the Chiefs, is set at 11½. Those two juggernauts open the Sunday night schedule against each other, which means one of them is going to begin with a loss on their way to a season with a projected dozen wins or more.
Here is another assumption we begin the 2025 campaign banking on: Teams that rise from last place to the playoffs one year have a down campaign the following season. Those two teams this year are the Washington Commanders and Denver Broncos.
Both had big seasons in 2024 while under the direction of rookie quarterbacks. As special as we agree Jayden Daniels is, and as well as Bo Nix played for Sean Payton’s Broncos last season, we anticipate both to stumble this season before reasserting their prowess in years to come.
This season we have eight games that qualify for preseason wagers on win totals, and they are all listed below.
Qoxhi Picks season win totals:
Kansas City Chiefs under 11½ wins
Los Angeles Chargers over 9½ wins
Baltimore Ravens over 11½ wins
Buffalo Bills over 11½ wins
Denver Broncos under 9½ wins
Washington Commanders under 9½ wins
Dallas Cowboys over 7 wins
Houston Texans over 9 wins