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What worked then doesn’t work now.

That is a rule that can be applied across the board in life events. Yet, it is no more dramatic than in the world of wagering. Today, there is an explosion of wagering on everything from what color hat the queen is going to wear to when Donald Trump will next attack Iran. What we have learned from this ability to wager on anything is how valuable inside information is.

There was a time, and I’m old enough to remember, when the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins were the powers in the NFC East. The Cowboys developed into America’s team during the 1970’s and were likely to show up in the playoffs as often as Santa Claus does at Christmas.

Their dominance, after those years with Tom Landry as head coach, were reignited in the 1990s when Jimmy Johnson built a team that won three Super Bowls in a four-year span beginning in the 1992 season.

When I was in the front office with the Oakland Raiders, going back to the 1970’s, the cellar dwellers in the NFC were the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles. But, over the past three decades, Dallas and Washington have missed the postseason a lot more than they have participated, and the New York Giants and Eagles have each won a pair of Super Bowls.

The Eagles were among the favorites to get back into the playoffs this year before the season started, they won the Super Bowl just two years ago and were in the playoffs last season. Then this season opened, and the wheels fell off the Eagles band wagon. They struggled to an opening win at home over the Washington Commanders, who have only won one game this year. In second week action, the Eagles needed a last-minute touchdown to edge another team that has won only one game this season, the Tennessee Titans.

Still, with Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley, the Eagles had all the firepower they needed to be favored on the road a few Mondays ago when they met the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. The Bears saddled the Eagles their first loss of the season … and they haven’t won since. The Los Angeles Rams handed Philadelphia a home loss before they were edged in London by the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Then the world came crashing down on a team that had lost three in a row and got news that their All-Pro Quarterback, Jalen Hurts, was facing more than a simple injury. He had a blood clot that was moving, a potentially life-threatening condition that has sidelined him for the year and sent the Eagles into their contest last week against the Carolina Panthers with inexperienced quarterback Tanner McKee.

The Super Bowl defending Champion Seattle Seahawks have not followed up their title season the way they had hoped. They come into play tonight having lost as many games as they’ve won, three, and Sam Darnold has already lost as many starts for his team as he suffered in the entire past two campaigns while leading the Minnesota Vikings and Seahawks to 14 win regular seasons.

The problems endured by Seattle are not all physical … they have stumbled from bad situations to bad situations. It began when the schedule makers had them open against the team they beat in last year’s Super Bowl. One could have thought the New England Patriots had the motivation to atone for their 29-13 loss last February.

They might have, but the Seahawks actually got a motivational boost when the favorite in the game had to suddenly compensate for the loss of their quarterback when Darnold was knocked out of the game during the first series of downs. The team rallied around backup Drew Brees and overcame a second half deficit to eke out a three points win, 13-10. The team played hard the next week to compensate for the loss of Darnold in a win over the Arizona Cardinals, 31-7.

That lopsided loss coupled with the return of Darnold delivered the Seahawks a triple motivational trap in Week Three. First, the easy win over the Cardinals to push their record to 2-0 and the return of Darnold sent them to Washington as a confidence nine-point favorite. The Commanders, coincidentally, were losing their starting quarterback for the game when Jayden Daniels suffered an elbow injury during Washington’s lopsided loss to the Dallas Cowboys.

See that? The Seahawks are confident because they are getting their starting quarterback back, and the Commanders are motivated to compensate for the loss of theirs. It added up to an upset home win for Washington, 33-31.

The next week, at home, the Seahawks got a shot at the winless Los Angeles Chargers and took advantage of the game without beating the point spread. They were seven-point favorites and won the game by seven points, 30-23. The following Sunday, again at home, the Seahawks were favored over the team they had blown out of the playoffs last season by a score of 41-6, which was enough of a motivator for Kyle Shanahan’s visiting San Francisco 49ers squad to edge the Seahawks at Lumen Field, 32-29.

You know it. I know it. The books know it. Pretty much everyone knows the Houston Texans are a lot better team than their record. It’s because they lost four games out of the gate with three of those setbacks nailbitters at the end that went against Houston that has the Texans now a longshot to secure a playoff date.

It is true that the Texans lost three of their first four games last year and then hit a stride that saw C.J. Stroud become only the third quarterback in NFL history to win a playoff game in each of his first three professional seasons. The other two were Joe Flacco of the Baltimore Ravens from 2008 to 2010, and Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks in 2012, 13 and 14.

The Texans identified their problem early last year as tied to a weak offensive line. As the season progressed, head coach DeMeco Ryans and his staff improved that aspect of the Texans play and Houston opened the postseason with a lopsided win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Mike Tomlin’s last game as head coach.

There seemed to be nothing wrong with the Texans defense, which for the past couple seasons has ranked among the best in the league in multiple statistical categories. Surprisingly, in the first month this year, it was more the defense's fault that the Texans failed in their first four games.

All this dimmed the high hopes the Texans brought into the 2026 campaign. After losing their first four games they are saddled with needing to become only the second team in NFL history to earn a playoff date after opening their campaign with four losses. The San Diego Chargers lost their first four games in 1992 and went on to win 11 of their final 12 games to crack the playoff field.

What we are now in the midst of is that revival for the Texans. Two weeks ago, they took out their frustrations on a weak Tennessee Titans team, 26-3. Last week, in London they handled one of the best teams in the league with a 34-31 victory over the talented Jacksonville Jaguars.