The Philadelphia Eagles have participated in three Super Bowls over the past eight seasons. The Dallas Cowboys have not advanced to the National Football League’s last leg for the Vince Lombardi Trophy in 30 years.
In 2004, the NFL initiated a tradition where the defending Super Bowl Champions host the season opener on Thursday night. The Eagles, who downed the New England Patriots in Roman Numeral LII and the Kansas City Chiefs last season, tonight host the season opener for the second time.
The Dallas Cowboys are playing in their third Thursday night opener?
What? How?
The opponent of the Super Bowl team opening defense of their title is selected based on two criteria. First, they need to be scheduled for a game against the defending champ and second, the NFL is in search of an intriguing matchup to spike television ratings. Without winning a Super Bowl, the Eagles have not been chosen to enhance an opening matchup. The Cowboys have three times.
America’s Team provided the competition for the New York Giants to open the 2012 season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2022 and the Eagles tonight.
How have they done in this primetime spot?
Very well.
Jerry Jones’ team was the first visitor to down a defending champ when they met the Giants following New York’s victory in Super Bowl XLVI. The first eight games in this series were won by the homesteading Super Bowl Champions. The Cowboys upset victory over the Super Bowl winner was the first, but in recent years the opening game visitors have done much better.
Beginning with a Kansas City Chiefs thumping of the New England Patriots to kick off the 2017 season, visitors against Super Bowl Champs are 3 and 4 straight up and 4 and 3 against the point spread. Over the first eight games in this series the homestanding champs were 8-0 straight-up and 6-0-2 against the point spread. In other words, a game that for nearly a decade looked like a “sure” winner for the defending Super Bowl Champion, has leveled to a near 50/50 proposition in more recent years.
Last year, Kansas City won both the game and point spread when an apparent last second touchdown by Baltimore Ravens tightend Isaiah Likely was ruled out of bounds on replay. Had his toe not been on the endline, the Ravens would have certainly won the point spread, they were 2½ point underdogs and Baltimore Head Coach John Harbaugh had already singled for his team to go for a two-point conversion, and maybe the game.
In other words, the Chiefs opened the season like they played so many in the regular season last year; winning close. And these opening matchups, which once looked like the home standing champs had a big advantage has leveled off to where the game actually requires some handicapping to find the winner.
The Philadelphia Eagles are favored to repeat as champions for good reason. They have outstanding offensive and defensive lines, and an offense that can exploit defenses on either the ground or through the air. Without a discernible weakness, the Eagles have to be the play tonight.
Not so fast.
The Cowboys come into this game with questions on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Dak Prescott returns to the lineup after missing most of last season with an injury. For the first half of last season, following their opening week triumph against the Cleveland Browns on the road, the Cowboys were among the worst teams in football.
They open their 2025 campaign with new first time head coach Brian Schottenheimer and on the heels of surrendering a protracted negotiation with Micah Parsons by shipping the best defensive player on their roster to the Green Bay Packers.
Seems easy to take the Eagles tonight. Right?
That’s the problem from a wagering standpoint. I win nearly every year avoiding easy in favor of stiff challenges. I’m looking for teams that have something to overcome and will have the eye of the tiger for their game. Tonight, the Eagles are a smooth-running machine sliding into another season with confidence a win is just 60 minutes of game clock away. After beating the Cowboys twice last season, by lopsided scores of 34-6 and 41-7, Philadelphia looks in position to win another laugher against their NFC East Division competition.
It may be.
But to wager on that to happen against a Dallas team that knows it is up against daunting odds is to take the easy side, and when the point spread is factored in, commonly the losing side.
The Eagles are too good to bet against here; but the Cowboys are too motivated not to bet on.
From where I sit, there are two sides to this game without a clear choice for an investment. But, if you know me, you know I’m leaning with the motivation.