A year ago, the Detroit Lions were mowing down their National Football League competition like they were scheduled against Pop Warner teams. Entering the twelfth week of action in 2024, Dan Campbell’s squad had outscored their opponents by 159 points. Only one other team in the NFL had put up a triple-digit advantage over their combined opponents, the Buffalo Bills had 106-point edge after 11 games last season.
Let’s see, the Lions and Bills were both leading the league in wins and point differential. How did that Super Bowl appearance go for those two teams?
Oh yeah, neither survived their conference playoffs in a Super Bowl that featured the Philadelphia Eagles against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Was it an upset that the dominant Lions regular season didn’t spill into the playoffs and land them in the game with the winner taking home the Vince Lombardi Trophy?
Nope. Textbook.
In our office we call it the Peyton Rule. Named after the Indianapolis Colts best quarterback ever, Peyton Manning, who routinely led his Colts squads to big winning margins and first place finishes in the AFC South Division only to trip up in the playoffs. From 1999 to 2010 Manning led the Colts to double-digit wins 11times and was named the NFL’s Most Valuable Player five times. Yet in his 14 seasons with the Colts, he only twice advanced to the Super Bowl, winning one and losing one.
Manning played his final four seasons with the Denver Broncos and won a Super Bowl in his final game with a team not dominated by his efforts but a rock-solid defense.
The point is that teams that run up the score like the Colts did for so many seasons and the Lions did last year, seldom end their big years in a hail of confetti after the Super Bowl.
Why?
I believe it is all pinned to motivation and expectations. After dominating the regular season, they are expected to fly through the playoffs … and seldom do. It is because their opponents, quality teams also by virtue of being in the postseason, are prepared to take on the challenge and usually win with that motivational edge.
Last year, the Lions opened the playoffs double-digit home favorites and were upset by the Washington Commanders, who haven’t won many games since. Dan Quinn’s team lost the week after upsetting the Lions by 32 points to the Eagles, 55-23. The Commanders are also having a down season this year.
The Lions were rolling a year ago but we saw the high probability that they were going to be victims of the Peyton Rule. This year, they are not having as stellar of a regular campaign and lost their fourth game of the season last week to the defending Super Bowl Champions in Philadelphia.
The loss dropped the Lions to third place in the NFC North Division, a half-game behind the Packers and a full game behind the surprising Chicago Bears. This week, the Lions host the New York Giants, a team that has mostly struggled this season but did defeat the Eagles and Chargers earlier this year and gave the Packers all they could handle in a narrow loss last Sunday at MetLife Stadium.
This Sunday, the Lions are double-digit favorites over the Giants at Ford Field. Is this not the year to be laying double digits with Jared Goff and company or a perfect spot?
Perfect spot.
The Lions don’t come into this game overconfident or riding high off wins but rather challenged in their division race and perfectly poised to put a hurtin’ on the visitors from New York. In fact, we can see this year that while the Lions are not as consistently dominant as they were in 2024, they do respond to their losses.
After defeats against the Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs and Minnesota Vikings they bounced back with big wins by margins of 31, 15 and 22 points over the Bears, Buccaneers and Commanders.
We can expect, with a high level of confidence, an equally lopsided final score this week following their most recent loss.
Qoxhi Picks: Detroit Lions (-10) over New York Giants