Picking a Super Bowl winner before the season starts is not as unlikely as winning the lottery. It is also a lot more scientific.

Since I opened Qoxhi Picks in 1981, seven times we have picked the eventual Super Bowl winner in August. That doesn’t sound like much of a record to advertise, after all, one could have just picked Brady and the New England Patriots this century and picked up six winners.

Thing is, my Super Bowl picks are not solely based on who the best team is or what team the books are posting as the favorite. When I’m considering the wager on a Super Bowl winner, I like the sweet spot on odds between 10 and 18 to one. Only once in 45 years of picking Super Bowl winners have we taken a team with odds as low as 4 to 1, that was the San Francisco 49ers in 1984.

Our most recent Super Bowl winner was the Baltimore Ravens in Super Bowl XLVII, we got 12 to 1 odds on them before the season opened. A few years before that our pick was the New Orleans Saints, and they paid 21 to 1 for a preseason wager on them winning Super Bowl XLIV.

I never picked the Patriots to win a Super Bowl; the odds just never seemed like a good wager that takes months to complete. A lot can happen to a team over the course of an NFL season. The Chiefs were favored to win the Super Bowl in 2008 before Tom Brady was lost for the season with an injury suffered against the Kansas City Chiefs on opening day. The odds dropped on the Patriots winning the Super Bowl after the opening game season ending injury and those holding tickets before the injury had both short odds and a longshot chance.

Bad combination.

So, when you consider that the seven Super Bowl winners we’ve hit since 1981 have averaged a 12 to 1 payout our Super Bowl choices both provide season long interest and long-term profits. With that said, who do we have predicted to win it all this year when the National Football League convenes at Levi’s Stadium next February to decide the Super Bowl LX winner?

Let's consider the obvious. The Kansas City Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes are always a threat, they have won the AFC five of the past six seasons and won three Vince Lombardi Trophies. Last season, they skipped through the regular season like a kid running in the rain and avoiding the drops. Somehow, while outsourcing their competition in 17 regular season games by a mere 59 points, the Chiefs orchestrated the best regular season won/loss record in the league. To put that into perspective, the Detroit Lions had the best points for and points against differential in 2024while outsourcing their opponents by 222 points. The eventual Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles had a 160 point advantage over their competition while both the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills outscored their 2024 regular season opponents by 157 points.

The Chiefs magic season came to a crashing conclusion in their lopsided loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LIX, 40-22, in a game not as close as the final score. So, do the Chiefs rebound this year, win their sixth conference title in seven years and add another Vince Lombardi Trophy to their collection?

I think not.

From a purely football perspective I think the best two teams are the squads that will open the Sunday night schedule next week, the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills. Right now, the Bills are the gambling world favorite to win it all, with odds hovering around 5 to 1. The Baltimore Ravens are next on the Las Vegas odds at 6 to 1.

I like both these teams and if I had to pick a Super Bowl winner on talent alone these would be my top two choices. Both the Bills and Ravens have also developed in recent seasons to where a win this season to cap the 2025 campaign would be totally in alignment with where their franchises are. Both have quarterbacks that will be voted into the Hall of Fame five years after their playing days end and excellent coaching and overall organizations.

Yep, it is the Bills or Ravens this year to win it all … but that is not where I’m putting my money. A Super Bowl pick from my office needs to have some additional edge financially and two teams qualify this year.

The two teams, according to my numbers, most likely to be surprise winners this season are the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers. Now, here is the problem with both, their offensive lines. It is almost always true that when a team reaches a Super Bowl they have rode their success behind a talented offensive line that stayed healthy. Last year, the Eagles had excellence in the trenches that was superior to any team in the league, and while their defense was top notch their offensive line was the best and responsible for Saquon Barkley having his record-breaking rushing campaign.

The Chargers had an offensive line that could have been the best this year, but the injury suffered by All Pro Left Tackle Rashawn Slater eliminates a key ingredient in the Chargers front line. The only advantage to losing Slater is that it happened early in camp which gives the Chargers time in an attempt to plug the hole.

I like the Chargers for other reasons. I like a team challenged to overcome as opposed to seemingly having it all. Chargers Quarterback Justin Herbert has only twice led the Chargers to the postseason and lost both his playoff game efforts. I like the motivation with the Chargers and their odds at 25 to 1 offer a healthy payback.

The Houston Texans have everything but a top tier offensive line. What they need to have happen to win it all is have their underrated offensive line overachieve. They have odds of 33 to 1, which would be the longest odds for a Super Bowl winner since the New England Patriots won it all in the 2001 season.

The Texans had a breakout campaign two years ago behind a first-year head coach and rookie quarterback, namely DeMeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud. Last season, by my numbers, they should have had a down year, but instead they won their division and captured a playoff opening triumph over the Chargers.

That bodes well for them this year, and if their offensive line can come together, I like their chances enough to pick them to win it all.

Qoxhi Picks: Houston Texans Super Bowl LX at 33 to 1