There was a time, not too many years ago, when the linemakers would convene on Sunday night after the games to decide the lines for the upcoming schedule for all the games except for the teams involved in the next day’s Monday Night Football contest. The lines decided on, and presented initially to a group of wise guy players for their first shot at buying the numbers, were then refined and released to the books and posted late Sunday night.

When that was the process, opening lines meant something to do with the current state of the teams. In more recent years, I first noticed that some lines were so far off they required explanation. We might see the Cincinnati Bengals listed as a three point home favorite over the Baltimore Ravens on the posted opening line and now the Ravens were four point road favorites.

Were betters hitting the Ravens so hard that they actually shifted the line seven points overnight?

No, the huge shift in opening to current lines were the result of the books now offering opening spreads on games two, three, sometimes four weeks in advance. In other words, they might have an opening line with the Bengals favored, then Cincinnati’s Quarterback Joe Burrow is sidelined with an injury, which dramatically affects the current line but still has the media posting the opening line set before his injury.

The advent of in-game betting has also forced the books into practices that weren’t common a decade ago. In years before in-game wagering, all bets had to be made before the game kicked off. Sports books in Nevada were under tight scrutiny to guard against fraud. With in-game betting, patrolling the “illegal” late wagers is almost impossible to detect and enforce.

What I consider lost in the posting of future lines is that we were once able to see where the wise guy money was leaning early in the week. That’s because I had access to the early line, the number set before the spreads were offered to wise guys so the bookmakers could get clues on where their lines were soft. If the wise guys jumped on an opening line, before that spread was released for public consumption to the sports books, it would often be adjusted in response to the smart money moves.

Knowing where the smart money is doesn’t always produce a winner, but you wouldn’t want the record against it.

What lines the wise guys got on early is a lot more difficult to decipher now than it was years ago.

Still, we can see from the Week One opening lines that were released long before teams even reported to camp, where preseason action and wise guy money has adjusted the spreads.

Using this key we can see that some games have shifted from their opening number more than a point. The most dramatic is the Arizona Cardinals, they opened as a 3½ point favorite in New Orleans and are now favored by 6½ points over the Saints. That line is not adjusted by injury, but it is a result of the Saints looking to find a quarterback to replace the retired Derek Carr and the perceived problems first-year head coach Kellen Moore appears to be facing with his new team. It is also a reflection that the people in the know like what head coach Jonathan Gannon is doing with Arizona. With a healthy Kyle Murray ready to open his seventh NFL season the Cardinals appear better than early projections.

The Minnesota Vikings opening line for their game against the Chicago Bears had the Soldier Field hosts a 1½ point favorite, now the Vikings are favored by the same number. Why? Has first-year Chicago Head Coach Ben Johnson not lived up to the initial hype he got for accepting the Bears position after leading the Detroit Lions to the most points in the league last year as offensive coordinator on Dan Campbell’s staff?

Or, has the brief preseason appearance and work during camp convinced the football world that J.J. McCarthy is the real deal? The Vikings quarterback lost his rookie season to a preseason injury but opened the Vikings 2025 preseason behind center. He ran only one series and completed four of seven passes for 30 yards. Not exactly numbers to have workers preparing a wing for McCarthy in Canton.

But, the Vikings, and evidently, the football world in the know were impressed enough that McCarthy is both fully healed from his 2024 injury and ready to lead a team that won 14 games last year behind Sam Darnold.

Then there are the New York Giants, who swept their three preseason games and may have found their quarterback of the future in rookie Jaxson Dart. This year, head coach Brian DaBoll will send his team into the season with veteran quarterback Russell Wilson directing their offense. Wilson has had a rough go of it since leaving the Seattle Seahawks three years ago. In Denver, he led the Broncos to two most disappointing campaigns before being traded to the Pittsburgh Steelers. After his departure from the Mile High City, the Broncos cracked the playoff field behind rookie quarterback Bo Nix.

With the Steelers, Wilson started better than he finished. He won six of his first seven starts after taking over for Justin Fields mid-season, but lost his final four regular season games and to the Baltimore Ravens to open Pittsburgh’s postseason. The Steelers have moved onto another veteran on the shadowy side of his career, Aaron Rodgers, and Wilson has emerged as the starter with the Giants in New York.

They open on the road against last year’s breakthrough team, the Washington Commanders. Behind rookie sensation Jayden Daniels, the Commanders rose from last place in the NFC East to a playoff berth and a pair of postseason wins before losing to eventual Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game.

In his advanced years it is easy to see why Wilson may start better than he finishes the rigors of an NFL campaign. He was protected during the preseason and now meets a team that most bar room conversations has Dan Quinn’s team backing up their successful 2024 season with another playoff earning campaign. My studies show that it is more common for a team that rose from the bottom to the playoffs one year to routinely have expectations the following season well ahead of their actual talent level. And nothing is more deliberating to motivation than having expectations exceed talent.

Which means this. I think the smart money moving the Giants that opened as a 7½ point favorite down to six points is a very wise move.

So, borrowing a line from the Raiders of the Lost Ark series, “choose wisely.”

Qoxhi Picks: New York Giants (+6) over Washington Commanders