When the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills met seven weeks ago in Buffalo, the Bills were looking for a third straight win following season opening victories over the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets. The Dolphins lost their first two games, blown out in their opener by the Indianapolis Colts and downed in second week action on their home field by the New England Patriots.
The Bills were 11 point favorites when these two AFC East Division teams met in September, and the Dolphins kept it close and beat the spread while losing their third straight game, 31-21. The point spread loss for Buffalo was their first of four straight games that they failed to cover the line and they got beat twice straight up, first by the New England Patriots two weeks after they downed the Dolphins, and the following Monday night in Atlanta by the Falcons.
After taking a 4-2 record into their bye week, they ended their run of four straight losses against the line with impressive triumphs over the Carolina Panthers, 40-9, and against the defending AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday, 28-21. Sean McDermott’s team comes into action this week trailing the surprise Patriots, who they are even with in the loss column but have won one less than the seven victories notched by Mike Vrabel’s squad.
The Dolphins are five games back in the standings, just one game ahead of the one-win New York Jets.
When these two teams met in Week Three, the Bills were overconfident against the winless Dolphins, and it showed. Josh Allen misfired enough to not pull away from the overmatched team from Miami, but Buffalo had enough superior talent to secure a win over the Dolphins that never seemed threatened.
Are the Bills overconfident this week?
While we think of the Bills, for good reason, as an elite team and the Dolphins a lower tier squad, it is worth noting that since 2017 the Dolphins and Bills have squared off 16 times, 15 regular season games and one playoff contest. While the Bills have won 14 of those games their point spread records are dead even, eight wins and eight losses for each team. The Bills have won the last seven meetings straight-up, but the Dolphins have beaten the point spread in both the second contest between these two teams in 2024 and the first time they met this year.
When an underdog beats the spread without winning the game it is more common for the dog to get a straight-up win before they absorb a lopsided loss. In other words, purely from a season-to-season statistical perspective, the Dolphins are likely to continue beating the spread against the Bills until they register a straight-up win.
Might that straight-up conquest for the Dolphins be today in Miami?
Could be.
If not, it is more likely that they cover this point spread than the Bills tag them with a double-digit loss.
Qoxhi Picks: Miami Dolphins (+9½) over Buffalo Bills