As all 32 National football league teams report to their training camps every one of them are hopeful this is their year.

For most, it’s not.

In fact, only one of the 32 National Football League teams will win it all in Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium on February 8. This does not preclude the other 31 opening their season with high hopes. But in reality, five teams have the best chance at collecting the Vince Lombardi Trophy and a handful of other squads not opening the season among the favorites have a legitimate shot at winning it all.

By the numbers, since the 2017 season there have been eight Super Bowls played and only seven different teams have participated in them. The Kansas City Chiefs have won three while participating in five. Behind them as multiple Super Bowl Participants are the Philadelphia Eagles, New England Patriots, Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. The Eagles have participated in three, won two. The Patriots and Rams have split their two appearances, and the 49ers lost both theirs. The other two teams that appeared once during the past eight seasons are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cincinnati Bengals. The Buccaneers played the Chiefs in their quest for the Vince Lombardi Trophy and succeeded with Tom Brady at quarterback. The Bengals lost to the Rams in Super Bowl LVI.

In other words, when it is all said and done the Super Bowl is usually played and won by the same teams the books list as their favorites before the season starts. This year, the five teams the books favor are the Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions. The books are willing to take a wager that includes those five teams against the field.

Want any of the 27 other teams?

Last year, two teams that weren’t on most people’s radar for a title when the season opened earned a playoff spot with the Washington Commanders advancing all the way to the National Football Conference Championship Game. A game in which eventual Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia blew them out while the Eagles scored 55 points.

The other surprise playoff participant in 2024 was the Denver Broncos, who after disappointing campaigns with Russell Wilson behind center for two seasons and more losses than wins in the first year with head coach Sean Payton, emerged in 2024 behind rookie quarterback Bo Nix. They challenged the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West and landed a postseason date in Buffalo.

Like the Commanders getting blown out in their final playoff game last season, the Broncos also lost in their final game of the 2024 season by a decisive score. The Bills won easily to open their playoff run, 31-7. Washington won their first two postseason games last season over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions.

Okay, the Commanders and Broncos both succeeded with a rookie quarterback leading the way. Nix in Denver and the even more impressive Jayden Daniels leading the Washington fortunes. What can we expect from these two teams in 2025?

First, quarterbacks who burst on the scene with big rookie years often have a slump in their second professional season. There are two major reasons for this. First, opponents now have a season of their play on video to study and design defenses to blunt their efforts. Second, from a purely motivational perspective, players who have big rookie seasons now have expectations that often flatten their performance.

For those reasons, teams that have a meteoric rise one year, like going from last place to the playoffs as Denver and Washington did last year, stumble in the season following their unexpected success. Both the Commanders and Broncos are getting talked up this off-season as legitimate contenders in 2025.

Not by my count.

If we are going to have a dark horse vie for it all with a rise mirroring the success of Washington and Denver last season, it will come from a team that had a bad 2024 campaign and expectations below their actual talent level.

There are a few candidates that could fill this bill. You want a longshot to win it all?

The Chicago Bears could make a surprise run in 2025, as could the Arizona Cardinals, Jacksonville Jaguars or Atlanta Falcons.

Longshots are fun, but in the NFL the hopes across the league are really only going to be realized by the handful of teams that we have come to expect will rise to the top. Unless, yep, unless is always the hope.