There are some trends in the National Football League that are worth considering while making a selection. Here is one that applies to this week, that is the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. Underdogs do really well.
Since 2017, There have been 38 Wild Card games played, including the two completed yesterday. In those games, the favorites are 22-16 straight-up, but against the point spread, their winning numbers are reduced to a losing 14-24 mark. It is worth noting that in the regular season 16% of straight-up winners lose against the point spread. But, in the Wild Card games, that number is 21% when the point spread is factored into the result.
And let's get real, the only outcome we really care about is the point spread result.
Why is there a bulge in the value of point spreads in the Wild Card round?
First, the public is most often loading up on postseason favorites that are routinely at home and likely own a better regular season record. This public interest in the favorites has the books slanting the lines that offer the underdogs an added edge. Consider this, when the Baltimore Ravens hosted the Pittsburgh Steelers three weeks ago they were favored by seven points. Last night, when they hosted the Steelers, Lamar Jackson and company were forced to lay ten on the opening line.
Now, while the public was still taking the Ravens, the wise guys got in on the action and saw value in the spread and drove the closing number down to Pittsburgh by 8½ points. It was not enough for a Steelers squad that was up against a Baltimore team playing their best football of the season.
Now, we have a similar contest on Sunday morning in Buffalo, when the Bills host the upstart Denver Broncos.
The line opened with Josh Allen’s team favored by 7½ points and once the public money came in heavy for the homesteading Bills, that line jumped to nine points. The wise guys, no doubt operating off the success of underdogs in this round of the NFL playoffs, bought the bloated line and this morning it has settled in with Buffalo favored by 8½ points.
The wise guys have their reasons, and in this case their final choice is in opposition with mine.
Statistically, the Broncos matchup really well with the Bills. Another reason why a lot of bettors see value in taking the points with the visitors in Buffalo.
I have a different scale to weigh.
While the Broncos have put together a fine season behind rookie quarterback Bo Nix in head coach Sean Payton’s second season in the Mile High City, this is a step up in class. Buffalo is a veteran team at winning in the postseason, only missing a Super Bowl victory in their long, impressive history. Josh Allen is the only candidate truly in the running for the Most Valuable Player Award against Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson.
The Bills have also taken on the best and have impressive wins over the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions. Two teams not having to play this week because they won the top seed in their conferences.
While the Bills have had success against top competition, the Broncos have done well against lower tier teams but struggled against teams with winning records. Their only two wins in that situation were against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers early in the season and in their final regular season game when they got to play the Chiefs while Kansas City had nothing to play for.
The Broncos record was boosted because they took care of business against teams the likes of the New York Jets, Las Vegas Raiders and Carolina Panthers. But, when they were matched against playoff caliber squads, namely the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Chargers and the Chiefs in their first meeting when Kansas City had something to play for, Nix and company were one win and five losses.
Buffalo, of course, is a high-quality team, and the Broncos pose just enough of a threat to get their best effort. Which is enough to interrupt the underdog Wild Card dominance.
Qoxhi Picks: Buffalo Bills (-8½) over Denver Broncos