There are some trends in the National Football League that are worth considering while making a selection. Here is one that applies to this week, that is the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. Underdogs do really well.
Since 2017, There have been 38 Wild Card games played, including the two completed yesterday. In those games, the favorites are 22-16 straight-up, but against the point spread, their winning numbers are reduced to a losing 14-24 mark. It is worth noting that in the regular season 16% of straight-up winners lose against the point spread. But, in the Wild Card games, that number is 21% when the point spread is factored into the result.
And let's get real, the only outcome we really care about is the point spread result.
Why is there a bulge in the value of point spreads in the Wild Card round?
First, the public is most often loading up on postseason favorites that are routinely at home and likely own a better regular season record. This public interest in the favorites has the books slanting the lines that offer the underdogs an added edge. Consider this, when the Baltimore Ravens hosted the Pittsburgh Steelers three weeks ago they were favored by seven points. Last night, when they hosted the Steelers, Lamar Jackson and company were forced to lay ten on the opening line.
Now, while the public was still taking the Ravens, the wise guys got in on the action and saw value in the spread and drove the closing number down to Pittsburgh by 8½ points. It was not enough for a Steelers squad that was up against a Baltimore team playing their best football of the season.