Nothing is more revealing for the direction of National Football League teams than the first week of regular season results. But it is debatable that since the league cut their preseason schedule to three games and training camp to 16 full contact drills that this gauge is as reliable.
In the first forty-seven Super Bowls there was only one team, the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, that lost on opening day at home and went on to capture that season’s Super Bowl. Since 2023, there have been two. The Kansas City Chiefs in the 2023 campaign and the Seattle Seahawks last season. In fact, both Super Bowl participants last February had been defeated in their season opening games. The New England Patriots lost the Super Bowl after being downed on their home field by the Las Vegas Raiders on opening day, and the Seattle Seahawks, who won Super Bowl LX, were beaten in their season opener at Lumen Field by the San Francisco 49ers.
Now, did the Los Angeles Rams lose their home opener to the 49ers this season?
Yes … and no. The game did list the Rams as the home team and the next time they meet their NFC West opponent it will be at San Francisco. But this “home” game was played at a site 7,920 miles from SoFi Stadium, the Rams home. If the Rams go on to win the Super Bowl this year there will always be an asterisk next to the information indicating they opened their 2026 campaign at home.
It is little wonder why the first week is not as much of an indicator to team direction now as it used to be. Consider this, Matthew Stafford and Patrick Mahomes, two elite NFL quarterbacks, saw no game action during the preseason. There was a time, when the NFL played four summer games, that the third game of the preseason was primarily used to give the teams expected starters extended playing time. When I was with the Raiders 50 years ago, the NFL staged six preseason games and longer training camps and when the bell rang to open the regular season the teams were at what is now referred to as “mid-season form.”
The opening week play this season not only had some major surprises but more often sloppy play. Teams are still working themselves into “mid-season form.” The jury is a lot less certain early in a campaign for which squads will emerge from a rocky start and go on to win it all once they hit their stride. We are going to get a look at the extreme of two teams' development on Monday night when the Rams host the New York Giants.
This time, the Rams hosting a game will take place in their home stadium and first week results couldn’t be more different for these two National Football Conference squads. The Giants, under new head coach John Harbaugh, opened his era in New York with a resounding victory over their longtime nemesis in the NFC East, the Dallas Cowboys. The Giants did appear to be in mid-season form on both sides of the ball. Most notable was the play of second-year quarterback Jaxson Dart.
Last year, during his rookie campaign, Dart was like a lot of young quarterbacks that have talent but are not yet seasoned enough to keep up with the speed of the NFL game. During his initial pro season, when his first read didn’t produce an open receiver, it was Dart’s tendency to go right to his young legs to try and make a play. On Sunday night, if his first read was covered the young signal caller was poised in getting to his second and third reads before resorting to his running ability.
What we saw in Dart Sunday night was the benefit of skilled coaching and one year of experience. The next question is how that will translate into a second week result when the Giants travel cross country and meet a Rams team that has had nearly two weeks to prepare following their 27-7 blowout loss to the 49ers.
One might simply rely on the Rams to bounce back off their loss and the Giants to come up flat following their big win over the Cowboys.
Problem with that is “simple” seldom wins in the NFL.