Thirteen games are scheduled today in the National Football League as the regular season gets in full swing. Tomorrow, the Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos in the opening Monday Night Football game of the season.
What teams will rise from the bottom and surprise the odds makers and what teams will also surprise by dropping from a high perch is pure conjecture before we have an opportunity to see all 32 teams in action. What we can be sure of, even more now that the league offers the teams with the worst standings last season the perceived easiest schedules this season, is that at least two teams that finished in their division cellar in 2025 will crack the playoff field this season.
Last year, one of the last place teams from the prior season advanced all the way to the Super Bowl as the New England Patriots bounced off a four win season with a new head coach and met the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl LX. The Seahawks, who captured the Vince Lombardi Trophy also opened last season with daunting Super Bowl odds of 60 to 1.
Seven teams that finished last in their division races last season were the New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, Las Vegas Raiders, New York Giants, New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals. In the NFC North Division, the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings finished tied for last in their division, but both teams had 9 and 8 winning records. The Carolina Panthers cracked the playoff field while winning the NFC South with a losing mark, eight wins and nine losses.
Other than the Vikings and Lions, most football followers would be hard pressed to see any of the seven last place teams with losing records rising to the playoffs this season. But history has shown that at least two of them will.
The Los Angeles Rams are the 23rd team since 1996 to have Super Bowl odds of 5 to 1 or less. The first 22 squads that opened the season with favored roles to win it all as low as 5 to 1 haven’t succeeded. Not a Super Bowl winner among them. Winning is not simply based on talent, and eight of the preseason favorites of 5 to 1 or less actually advanced to the Super Bowl, but all of them lost on the final leg to win it all.
I think the primary reason big favorites fail is that they are missing the motivation to overcome an obstacle. Winners are teams that combine talent and motivation, and motivation is best driven by the need to overcome. That is where the challenge that leads to overachieving lives.
I look for those motivational edges each week, then combine those findings with point spreads that enhance the edge to win the wager.
This week, the public has three favorite plays, and I consistently find that the public plays most wagered are often teams that have the greatest motivational traps to overcome. The public is lined up today on the Detroit Lions (-7) over the New Orleans Saints as their most bet game. The next two are the Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) over the Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles (-(5½) over the Washington Commanders.
Our Qoxhi Top Pick and one additional rated game are now posted on this site.