Sometimes you hear something you just can’t believe.
Today, thanks to available research tools, we can follow-up on claims that seem highly suspect and prove or disprove their validity. For example, this week on my weekly appearance with Tom Tolbert on his podcast he said, “In the last 30 years there have been preseason Super Bowl odds of 5 to 1 or less 20 times.”
“Really,” I thought without much concern for the stat, until he delivered the punch line, “You know how many of those favored Super Bowl teams went on to win?” He didn’t wait for my answer before saying, “zero.”
Now, I avoid making my Super Bowl pick the favorite and certainly not when they are offering odds as little as 5 to 1 or less. But I didn’t know how wise that move was while always looking for a team that I think is in the sweet spot, that is between 12 and 24 to one. These are consistently teams good enough to win and with a payout that makes winning very profitable.
I still wanted to confirm Tom’s claim, and you know what I discovered? Since 1996, there have been 23 teams that have opened with odds 5 to 1 or shorter including this season’s Los Angeles Rams. None of those previous 22 squads have gone on to win a Super Bowl. Nine have earned a trip to the Super Bowl, but they have all lost. Three highly favored teams failed to even make the playoffs.
In other words, being the favorite to win it all has never proven to be odds a team could live up to.
The closest a prohibitive favorite came to winning a Super Bowl was the Seattle Seahawks in the 2014 season. They opened that campaign, on the heels of winning it all the previous year and blowing out the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII, at 4½ to 1. They lost the Super Bowl to the New England Patriots when they gave up an interception on the goal line in the closing moments of the game.
The other eight teams to advance to a Super Bowl with short odds and lose the final leg for the Vince Lombardi Trophy were the 1997 Green Bay Packers, 2001 St. Louis Rams, 2004 Philadelphia Eagles, 2007 New England Patriots, 2011 New England Patriots, 2017 New England Patriots, 2020 Kansas City Chiefs and 2024 Kansas City Chiefs.
The Rams, who are a prohibitive favorite this season, have already reduced their chances of winning it all with their opening loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Most Super Bowl teams win on opening day, only three have lost at home on the first day of the season and gone on to win it all. The Rams used up a home game against their NFC West Division rivals while meeting the 49ers in Australia.
So, if it is not the heavy favorite that wins a Super Bowl who is it?
It’s not the team with the early headlines and accolades, but rather the team that has a motivational spike with something to overcome. Few things are worse for a team motivationally than thinking they can just throw their helmets on the field and pick up a win in the NFL. The winning teams are always a squad good enough to win with something to overcome to spike their performance.
Who is that magical team this year?
Two teams that are looking to earn that distinction meet on Sunday in Houston when the Texans host the Buffalo Bills. Under first-year head coach Joe Brady, the Bills look to win their first Super Bowl and have the manpower that has them open at 10-1 to get that done. Brady is in his first-year as head coach, but he has been on the Bills staff since 2022 and served as offensive coordinator the past two seasons.
In replacing longtime head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills landed on their offensive coordinator in no small part based on the recommendation of starting quarterback Josh Allen.
The Bills are a viable Super Bowl pick, as is their opening day opponent. The Texans are currently posted at 18 to 1 to win Super Bowl LXI while featuring one of the best defenses in all of football. What the Texans need to succeed is their quarterback, C.J. Stroud, to return to his rookie form. In the past two years, Stroud has gone backwards in production.
That can be attributed to a suspect offensive line, but if that comes together like head coach DeMeco Ryans is hoping, the Texans and Bills may just be opening the season to determine which of these American Football Conference powerhouses will host the AFC Championship Game.
One thing for sure, both are viable candidates to win it all and neither are saddled with the preseason favorite role.