Two things will move the number on both point spreads and long-term odds. First, game movements are most often tied to injuries and the second factor that moves a line or season-long odds is public opinion.
It is that second primary reason that has adjusted the Super Bowl odds for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2026. Nothing the Chiefs have done over the past month should have influenced their chances of returning to a Super Bowl this season. They traded their best defensive back, Trent McDuffie, to the Los Angeles Rams for four draft choices including the Rams first pick in next month’s draft, the 29th overall selection. The move is an indicator the Chiefs are looking to build for the future, not the coming season.
The injury that quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered late in the 2025 season may prevent him from being ready to start the season behind center for the Chiefs. And, after nine straight postseason appearances, including three Super Bowl wins in five trips to the big game, last year, they faded like a cheap suit in the sun. Kansas City missed the playoffs and ended the year with 11 losses.
Still, their opening Super Bowl odds were set at 14-1 and haven’t moved despite the mounting concerns for the Chiefs this season. If the Chiefs were mere mortals, not the team that dominated the league for nearly a decade, their current state of affairs would have seen their Super Bowl odds rise like the temperature in Arizona in August.
Public opinion is playing a role to keep the Chiefs Super Bowl odds a lot lower than they should be based on personnel issues and team direction.
The Philadelphia Eagles, the team that beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl LIX, is not getting the same respect from the public. Their team was eliminated from the playoffs in the first round three years ago, won the Super Bowl two seasons ago, and then faded again last year while being eliminated on their home field in the Wild Card round by the injury plagued San Francisco 49ers.
In the first month the Super Bowl odds were out, the Eagles chances went from 14 to 1 to 17 to 1.
The three teams with the biggest negative shifts in Super Bowl odds are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers., Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders. Opening odds had the Buccaneers listed at 40 to 1 and Colts and Commanders at 60 to one.
The dramatic shifts in those odds are pinned to some well publicized negative factors. The Buccaneers and Colts both had strong starts to their 2025 seasons and then stumbled down the stretch and missed the playoffs. The Colts problems were obviously tied to the loss of quarterback Daniel Jones, who was putting together a season that could have had him in the running for Most Valuable Player but once he was injured, the Colts lost all continuity. Their problems had them sign Philip Rivers out of retirement, and while he performed better than most QB’s who hadn’t played in four seasons, it was not enough to earn the Colts a win.
The Buccaneers problems are more pronounced.
Baker Mayfield led his team to a number of close wins for the first half of the 2025 campaign, but following their midseason bye the Buccaneers lost seven of eight games and even a dramatic two-point home win over the Carolina Panthers on the final weekend missed the playoffs when an Atlanta Falcons victory the next day over the New Orleans Saints sent the Panthers to the playoffs and the Buccaneers home.
The Buccaneers 2025 collapse included losses against the point spread in their final nine games. These results, and the loss through free agency of one their primary offensive weapons for the past dozen seasons, Mike Evans, has most football people predicting the Bucs fade in 2025 will continue in the coming season.
The Commanders drop from favor in the football world is a bit more unpredictable. Two years ago, in Jayden Daniels rookie season, the quarterback put together one of the best seasons for a first-year pro in history. His outstanding play advanced the Commanders all the way to the NFC Championship Game in 2024. Good things were projected for Dan Quinn’s squad last year by many football followers … but not me. I had too often seen teams that rush for the cellar to the playoffs suffer a dismal campaign when expectations far exceed actual talent.
The good news for the Commanders is nearly as often as a bad campaign follows their breakthrough campaign; success follows that collapse with another good season. Once expectations are reduced, actual results can rise.
The public perception versus more likely actual results.
It is an edge all season long … make that all year long when scrutinizing Super Bowl odds.