Football historians still cite the Pittsburgh Steelers going into Buffalo on the final day of the 2004 season and beating the Bills in a game the home team needed to earn a playoff slot while the Steelers were already locked into their playoff seed.
They talk about it because it's so rare that a team that is already in the playoffs upsets a team needing a win to join the postseason party. I have another fact for teams that do win when they don’t have to on the final day of the season, they don’t play well when they need to in the playoffs. In 2004, the Steelers followed their triumph in Buffalo with a narrow victory over the New York Jets, winning by three points while favored by nine, and then got blown out on their home field by two touchdowns to complete Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie season.
When a team wins an “extra” game, against a team that needed it and didn’t get it, there is a confidence in the victors that is overblown and they become common victims of that motivational trap.
So, here we are, the final day of the 2024 regular season, and we have a game where one side needs it to clinch a playoff berth, and the other side is locked into their playoff slot. In this case, it is the Denver Broncos, who behind rookie quarterback Bo Nix are on the cusp of cracking the playoff field in Sean Payton’s second season coaching the team in the Mile High City. The Broncos opponent this Sunday is the Kansas City Chiefs, a team that with their victory in Pittsburgh on Christmas Day locked up the American Football Conference top seed.
Do the Chiefs have anything to play for?
Well, that depends on who you are asking that question.
If you pose that to Chiefs fans they will tell you that their team likes to win whether they need it or not and Patrick Mahomes just doesn’t have losses in his DNA.
But, if you check in with the Chiefs coaching staff, you might get a different story. They are much more focused on protecting Mahomes’ ankle that was sprained a couple weeks ago from further punishment and allowing veteran tightend Travis Kelse a game off after a rigorous 17 weeks of full contact participation.
You can’t blame the Chiefs staff from looking past this game, and I’m sure their game preparation in film studies for future opponents has already shifted from this week’s “meaningless” game to potential postseason competition. I’m willing to wager that there was more time spent studying the tendencies of the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills this week at the Chiefs camp.
As it should be.
Andy Reid and his staff know how to win when it counts, and this one doesn’t. That is why this week the home standing Broncos are ten-point favorites over perhaps the best team in football. The only way the books can get informed bettors to wager on the wrong side of this proposition is to give too many points to the losers.
In all likelihood, it’s still not enough.
But, if by chance the Chiefs win another one, knock the Broncos out of the playoffs, well that may be the first reason this year to suggest they aren’t winning their third straight Super Bowl.
I just can’t see the Chiefs digging that motivational trap, now the only question is whether the Broncos win and cover the spread or only win.
I think they cover.
Qoxhi Picks: Denver Broncos (-10) over Kansas City Chiefs